The estimate of a EUR 914.4 million burden on the wholesale market and the conditions for consumers to benefit from cross-border trade.
Can a country export more electricity while its consumers do not enjoy correspondingly cheaper power? The question is of particular importance for Greece. The value of exports demonstrates the commercial performance of an industry. For a household, however, the success of energy policy is also judged by the cost of the kilowatt-hour, the stability of the bill and security of supply.
A new study by The Green Tank estimates that the additional electricity generation from fossil gas for exports burdened the Greek wholesale market by 914.4 million euros between January 2024 and July 2026. This is the result of a machine learning model examining hypothetical scenarios. In the first, gas production and exports are reduced, with restrictions to cover domestic demand and downward reserves. The estimated average price reduction is 6.23 euros per megawatt-hour.
The financial estimate results from applying the price differential to domestic demand. It does not represent a sum of audited retail bills. For the period up to June 2026, the corresponding burden is estimated at EUR 889.4 million, while the electricity trade surplus amounts to EUR 821.2 million. The study also calculates approximately 2.6 million tonnes of CO₂ from additional gas generation. In a second scenario, with the same exports but the substitution of this generation by additional RES, it estimates a benefit of EUR 1.065 billion in the wholesale market.
How do exports connect to domestic prices? Demand from neighbouring markets can lead to the additional operation of gas-fired units in Greece. These participate in the same market where energy is procured for domestic consumption. According to the interpretation by the Green Tank, this additional use of gas exerts upward pressure on the wholesale price, which also affects retail. Thus, the commercial benefit of exports can coexist with increased supply costs within the country.
From there to the consumer’s bill, however, stand the terms of their contract. Direct exposure to fluctuations varies between fixed and dynamic tariffs. ACER notes that fixed contracts remain the most common choice for households it monitors in the EU and Norway, while dynamic ones have limited penetration. Consequently, it is unjustified to divide a total wholesale burden figure by the number of households and present it as the amount paid by each family. ACER, retail market monitoring 2026.
Care is also needed with the economic comparison. The trade surplus measures the difference in value between electricity exports and imports. It is neither a net business profit nor a comprehensive account for the national economy. To calculate an overall social benefit or cost, one would need to examine, among other things, fuel expenditures, production and investment costs, and the distribution of revenues. Simply subtracting the surplus from the estimated burden is not sufficient to substantiate “harm to the country”.
Similarly, the good reproduction of historical prices by a statistical model does not prove in itself what exactly would happen following a policy change. Evaluating an export restriction would also require examining the reactions of neighboring markets. To substitute gas with renewables, it needs to be proven that the additional clean energy would be available at the specific hours and at what total cost. These are prerequisites for turning an estimate into an actionable plan.
Interconnections remain an essential part of the solution. The European Commission explains that market coupling enables cross-border flows, limits price divergences and enhances security of supply. The ability to import electricity is particularly useful when domestic generation is expensive or insufficient. The impact of trade must therefore be assessed in both directions, during import hours and export hours. European Commission, electricity market design.
ACER provides a crucial regional dimension. In its report on South-Eastern Europe, it attributes the price spikes of summer 2024 primarily to the lack of flexible resources that could quickly replace photovoltaic generation in the evening, amid high demand conditions. At the same time, limited cross-border capacity hindered imports of cheaper electricity from the rest of the EU. It proposes better utilisation and strengthening of networks, regional coordination, and more storage and demand response. ACER, interconnections and flexibility in South-Eastern Europe, 2026.
For Greece, this translates into specific priorities: storage so that clean generation can be utilised when needed, grids that enable its transmission, and incentives to shift flexible consumption to hours of greater availability. This direction is in line with the European market reform, which promotes long-term power purchase agreements and two-way contracts for difference, with the aim of reducing the dependence of bills on short-term prices.
Public debate now requires a more demanding way of measuring success: alongside exported megawatt-hours, presentations should include the cost of meeting domestic consumption, emissions, curtailments of available clean energy, and changes in final tariffs. The goal is an export activity that simultaneously supports regional supply and the access of households and businesses to affordable electricity.
